Nextgen war forcasts: Wii Vs. PS3 Vs. X360

So all next gen systems are out in the open. Yes, I know you may still be unable to get one, but anyway.
A hot topic is "who's gonna win?" which is a question I heared numerous of times in my life!

I really think that Nintendo has an upper hand this time. Why?
I'll cut that to phases so you can piece it together later and understand:
PHASE 1:
On the Super Nintendo days, Nintendo OWNED the market. It was just them Vs. Sega, and Nintendo killed them in there.
So what happens is, Nintendo calls Sony and asks them to make a CD add on to their SNES console. But discontinues the project when they see Sega's CD add on failing. leaving Sony with an investment they do not want to lose. Nintendo here were King, and cocky.

PHASE 2:
Nintendo releases the Nintendo 64, Sony release the PlayStation. Nintendo forces the cartridge system down the industry's throat. AND charges an arm and a leg to publish games. On the other hand, Sony gave them freedom & charged next to nothing.
So this is what publishers were thinking: Hmmm. Pay alot, work with a limited memory & limited freedom, or pay little; have alot more memory & have all the creative freedom I want?
Naturally, everyone moved to Sony, even Square! Nintendo failed to understand that the market grew up, and they are not children anymore. In the end of this phase, Nintendo realized it could not go head to head with Sony, so they picked a niche market (smart move, they went with kiddie stuff) and remained dormant.

PHASE 3:
PlayStation 2 & Game cube. here it gets interesting; Nintendo is cautious and Sony Ambitious. We all know Sony won eventually, but what Nintendo gained here is that they re-introduced popular franchises, and showed people that they are not a kiddie system anymore. I am quite convinced that they did this on purpose, I don't think they really were trying to dominate this round, they simply wanted to re-establish trust.

PHASE 4:
Very interesting phase. It is the exact opposite situation of PHASE 2!
Sony is very cocky, system is overpriced, games are overpriced, and they think "We are the PlayStation, people will come".
They maybe right, but look what Nintendo did, they are doing the exact same thing that the first PS1 did: Give great incentives to both publishers & customers.
The Nintendo Wii is :

1. Introducing the consoles to a new market
2. Is more than 50% cheaper than the PS3
3. Has Mature games at launch, to solidify the "non-kiddie" image
4. Has an advanced image sensoring system (a product from a wholly owned subsidiary) which Sony clearly imitated
   
5. is entering the market with 4 Million units as opposed to Sony's 400K

the Wii is cheaper but it's neither a BD player or HD compatible. That's fine. BD has alot to prove, that's one, and as for HD? Nintendo can easily re-release an HD version of the console after a year or so. by then they would have owned the market!

Also the availability of PS3s are really dismal. I mean Sony shipped 500K with the PS2 and still got a shortage, and now they are shipping 400K PS3s? Stupid. real stupid.

So in essence, this is what happened with Nintendo:

Phase 1, Nintendo Cocky

Phase 2, Nintendo gets PWNED!

Phase 3, Nintendo lurks in a corner to study and prepare

Phase 4, all guns ablazing!

Nintendo is the lucky number. Want proof? In the new Smash Brothers game for the Wii, Solid Snake (from Konami's Metal Gear Solid series) is making a guest appearance. Konami is usually an avid supporter of PS3, so whats this?

In the business world that means: Konami senses the danger lurking around Sony, so its strengthening its ties with Nintendo, just in case.

....
I didn't mention the Xbox did I?
Never mind. I hate the thing, and its only saving points are XBOX live service, and the fact that the defected RPG famous producer (Sakaguchi I think) has formed his own studio & will release to Xbox.

Interesting, but I think the major battle is Nintendo Vs. Sony, and I think Nintendo is winning.

What do you think?